Texas was the first state in the nation to engage in mid-decade congressional redistricting efforts in 2025. With voters considering 38 newly drawn districts on the March 2026 primary ballot, some candidates did not surpass the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. These congressional candidates are now vying for their party’s nomination in May primary runoff elections.

With a national battle for control of Congress underway, two runoff elections in the Houston region have garnered national attention: Texas District 9 in the southeast Houston region, including Pasadena and Liberty County, and Texas District 18, which includes central and southwest Houston and a portion of Fort Bend County. The contest for the Republican nomination for TX-9 includes state Rep. Briscoe Cain and Alex Mealer, while Congressmen Al Green and Christian Menefee are competing for the Democratic nomination in TX-18. Who will prevail in these two contests to represent their party in the high stakes midterm election in November?  

To explore these races, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted surveys of likely May 2026 Texas primary runoff voters to assess their vote intention and opinions in the Republican primary for TX-9 and in the Democratic primary for TX-18. Additionally, likely voters in the Fort Bend portion of TX-18 were queried about select countywide races on the Democratic ballot.

Voters were contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform with the option to answer the survey in English (TX-9, TX-18) or Spanish (TX-18). The TX-9 survey was fielded between May 5 and May 9, 2026, and the TX-18 survey was fielded between May 5 and May 8, 2026. Representative of voters who are likely to participate in these primaries, the sample population for the TX-9 survey is 400 (with a margin of error of +/- 4.90%) and the sample population for the TX-18 survey is 800 (with a margin of error of +/- 3.46%).

The Runoff Race for the Republican Nomination for Texas District 9

Alex Mealer (50%) leads Briscoe Cain (41%) by 9 percentage points among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 TX-9 Republican primary runoff election, with 9% unsure.

Runoff voters in the 9th District have a favorable opinion of both Republican candidates, with 55% saying that of Mealer and 51% saying the same of Cain. 

Cain is the choice of 70% of young voters under 35.

A majority (52%) of women voters in TX-9 support Mealer, compared to 39% who support Cain. The split was narrower among male voters, who favor Mealer 48% to 43%.

52% of white voters and 46% of Latinos support Mealer, compared to 40% and 41%, respectively, for Cain.

The Runoff Race for the Democratic Nomination for Texas District 18

Christian Menefee (50%) leads Al Green (43%) among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff election for TX-18, with 7% unsure.

Over four-fifths of likely TX-18 voters view both Green (84%) and Menefee (82%) favorably.

Menefee maintains strong leads among white and Latino voters, as well as with those younger than 55, but Green holds a slight edge among Black voters, 48% to 45%, and among older voters, 48% to 46%. 

Green leads among Fort Bend County voters who live in TX-18, with 55% of the vote compared to 36% for Menefee. Menefee leads among Harris County voters, with 55% of the vote compared to 39% for Green.

The Democratic Runoff Elections for Countywide Positions in Fort Bend County Within TX-18 Boundaries

In the March 3 Democratic primary in Fort Bend County, a little more than one-fourth of the votes cast were by voters in Congressional District 18. In the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff election, voters in TX-18 are likely to account for close to one-third of all votes cast countywide in Fort Bend County. It is very important to note that the following data is not representative of the likely May 2026 Democratic primary voters in Fort Bend County, but, rather, is only representative of the approximately one-in-three likely May 2026 Fort Bend County Democratic primary runoff voters who live within the boundaries of TX-18. The sample size for this Fort Bend population was 195 (with a margin of error of +/- 7.02%). 

Among likely May 2026 Fort Bend County Democratic primary runoff voters who live within the boundaries of Congressional District 18:    

• Dexter McCoy (57%) holds a substantial 37 percentage point lead over Rachelle Carter (20%), with 23% unsure about whom they will vote for to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for county judge in Fort Bend County.
• Sonya Jones (24%) and Maria Jackson (23%) are deadlocked, each with approximately one-fourth of the intended vote, with a little more than one-half (53%) unsure about whom they will vote for to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for county clerk in Fort Bend County.
• Jeffrey Boney (55%) holds a substantial 41 percentage point lead over Sara Khan (14%), with 31% unsure about whom they will vote for to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for treasurer in Fort Bend County.

Read the report to learn more about where likely May runoff voters stand on the 2026 primary runoff candidates for the Republican nomination for TX-9 and for the Democratic nomination for TX-18, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and March 3 voting history.

Media Release May 12, 2026

Research Team 

Co-Investigator Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher

Co-Investigator Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design

Falon Boehm, Multimedia Specialist 

Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Manager

Election Reports

Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.