Texas Votes 2026

Across the nation, voters, political analysts, campaign professionals and journalists are watching the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas. Will Democrat James Talarico break the Republican stronghold on statewide positions in the Lone Star State? Or will Republican Ken Paxton continue the three-decade statewide trend? And who is leading in other statewide races? Will Governor Greg Abbott become the longest serving governor in Texas history or will state Rep. Gina Hinojosa pull off an upset? Will Republican candidates hold off Democrat challengers in other statewide contests on the 2026 ballot? 

To address these questions and more, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted an online statewide survey of likely voters in Texas, with an oversample of Latino and rural voters, between Oct. 10 and Oct. 14, 2026. Likely voters were contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform with the option to answer the survey in English or Spanish. The overall sample population of 2,000 (margin of error of +/- 2.19%) likely voters was adjusted via multidimensional calibration weighting using demographic, historical electoral and geographic benchmarks.

The Texas Votes 2026 study includes three reports. The first report focuses on the statewide races for U.S. Senate, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, agriculture commissioner, land commissioner and railroad commissioner, as well as candidate favorability and election administration. Forthcoming reports will focus on Latino and rural voters and opinions about data centers. 

Report 1. Texas Votes 2026: Statewide Races, Favorability & Election Administration

The Race for the U.S. Senate 

Democrat James Talarico (48%) leads Republican challenger Ken Paxton (46%) by two points in the race for the U.S. Senate. Libertarian Ted Brown follows with 3%, and another 3% are undecided. 

The Race for Governor

In the Texas gubernatorial race, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott (49%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (46%) by three percentage points. Libertarian Pat Dixon follows with 2%, and 3% are undecided.

The Race for Lieutenant Governor

Incumbent Republican Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin by five points, 47% to 42%, in the election for lieutenant governor. Libertarian Anthony Cristo follows with 3% and Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick with 1%. 7% were unsure.

Other Highlights

In the election for attorney general, Republican Mayes Middleton is leading Democrat Nathan Johnson 47% to 42%. Libertarian Tom Oxford has 3%, and 8% are unsure.

Republican Don Huffines is leading Democrat Sarah Eckhardt, 47% to 40%, in the race for comptroller. Libertarian Alonzo Echavarria-Garza has 2%, and 11% are unsure.

Republican Nate Sheets is leading Democrat Clayton Tucker, 46% to 40%, in the election for agriculture commissioner. Libertarian Austin Kelly has 2%, and 12% are unsure.

For land commissioner, incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham has support from 47% of likely voters, while Democrat Benjamin Flores has 40%. Libertarian Neill Snider has 2%, and 11% are unsure.

Republican Bo French is leading Democrat Jon Rosenthal, 45% to 43%, in the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner. Libertarian Arthur DiBianca has 2%, and 10% are unsure.

54% of Texas voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump, while 46% have a favorable opinion.

55% said Texas is headed in the wrong direction, while 59% said the same about the United States.

A plurality of Texas likely voters (45%) are somewhat confident that the November 2026 election will be conducted fairly and accurately, while 25% are very confident. More than one-fifth (22%) are not too confident that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately, and 8% are not at all confident.

86% of likely voters in Texas support requiring all voters to present a photo ID when voting.

76% of Texas likely voters support automatically registering U.S. citizens to vote.

60% of likely voters in Texas support allowing any eligible voter to vote by mail. 

Read Report 1 to learn more about where Texans stand on the statewide 2026 General Election candidates, favorability and election administration, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship.

Media Release October 19, 2026

Research Team 

Co-Investigator Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher

Co-Investigator Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design

Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Director

Election Reports

Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.