All eyes are on the Lone Star State’s primary election slates in 2026. With a potentially competitive U.S. Senate race in the General Election in November, who will win the Republican and Democratic party nominations in the March primary elections? Will incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn overcome the challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt? And will Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico become the Democratic nominee? Meanwhile, primary voters are also determining party nominees for top statewide positions. What issues are on the forefront of the minds of primary voters? Are they satisfied with the direction of Texas and the nation? When looking ahead to potential General Election matchups in Nov. 2026, who is leading? To answer these questions and more, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted an online statewide survey of likely primary voters in Texas between January 20 - 31, 2026. The population for the Nov. 2026 General Election analysis consists of 1,502 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 2.53%), the population for the March 2026 Republican primary analysis consists of 550 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 4.18%), and the population for the March 2026 Democratic primary analysis consists of 550 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 4.18%). 

The results of this survey will be presented in two separate reports. This first report examines the vote intention in the 2026 Republican and Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primaries, the vote intention in the November 2026 U.S. Senate General Election and evaluations of President Donald Trump and his job performance. The second report will analyze vote intention in other March 2026 statewide primaries and in the November 2026 General Election, including coverage of the Republican primaries for attorney general, comptroller, agriculture commissioner and railroad commissioner, of the Democratic primaries for governor and attorney general, and of the November 2026 General Election for governor and lieutenant governor.

Report 1. Texas Primaries 2026: Republican & Democratic U.S. Senate Primaries & Evaluations of Pres. Trump

U.S. Senate Candidates

In the March 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary in Texas, 38% of likely voters intend to vote for Ken Paxton, 31% for John Cornyn, 17% for Wesley Hunt and 2% for other candidates, with 12% undecided.

In three hypothetical May 2026 primary runoffs featuring different pairs of the three Republican candidates, Paxton holds a 51% to 40% advantage over Cornyn and a 56% to 33% advantage over Hunt, while Cornyn holds a 46% to 39% lead over Hunt, with 9%, 11% and 15% of the likely voters undecided, respectively. 

In the March 2026 Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Texas, Jasmine Crockett leads with 47%, 8 percentage points greater than James Talarico’s 39%, with Ahmad Hassan receiving the support of 2% of likely voters and 12% unsure of how they would vote in this contest.

Close to one-half (45%) of likely November voters have a favorable opinion of Crockett, while 43% have a favorable opinion of Talarico, 41% have a favorable opinion of Paxton, 38% have a favorable opinion of Hunt, and 38% have a favorable opinion of Cornyn. In contrast, 48% of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Cornyn and Paxton, followed by Crockett (37%), Hunt (27%), and Talarico (23%). Finally, while 89%, 86% and 81% of likely November voters know enough about Paxton, Cornyn and Crockett to have an opinion of them, respectively, only 65% and 66% know enough about Hunt and Talarico to have an opinion of them, respectively. Among these five candidates, Talarico has the highest net-favorability rating (20%), followed by Hunt (11%), Crockett (9%), Paxton (-7%) and Cornyn (-10%).

Other Highlights

President Donald Trump remains popular with Republican primary voters, with 89% reporting a favorable impression of him. Among the general electorate, Trump’s favorability rating drops to 49%.

Nearly one-half of likely General Election voters (46%) say that inflation and the cost of living is the most important issue for their 2026 vote decision, followed by 29% who say the most important issue is jobs and the economy.

Likely voters in the General Election are split evenly between those who believe things in Texas are headed in the right direction (47%) and those who believe things in Texas are off on the wrong track (47%). In contrast, these voters believe things in the United States are off on the wrong track (52%) than believe that things in the United States are going in the right direction (43%).

Read Report 1 to learn more about where Texans stand on the 2026 primary candidates for the U.S. Senate, the vote intention in the November 2026 U.S. Senate General Election and evaluations of President Donald Trump and his job performance, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship.

Media Release February 9, 2026

Research Team 

Co-Investigator Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher

Co-Investigator Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design

Falon Boehm, Multimedia Specialist 

Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Manager

Election Reports

Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.