Harris County Elections 2026: Countywide and Precinct 2 & 4
The most populous county in the Lone Star State, Harris County has more than 2.7 million registered voters, which is nearly 15% of the Texas electorate. Due to its immense size, Harris County has a significant impact on statewide races, while serving as a microcosm of the future of Texas. Will this once solidly Republican county of more than 5 million residents continue to favor Democrats, especially for the top position of county judge? What are the most important issues when determining a vote decision for the county’s chief executive? Regarding statewide positions, who is leading the U.S. Senate race among likely Harris County voters? Will incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott or challenger state Rep. Gina Hinojosa win the majority of Harris County votes in the gubernatorial contest? And are candidates and incumbents viewed favorably or unfavorably?
To address these questions, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a representative survey of Harris County voters who are expected to cast a ballot in the November 2026 midterm elections. The survey was fielded in English and Spanish between October 3 and October 8, 2026. With a margin of error of +/- 1.87 percentage points, the overall sample population of 2,750 Harris County likely voters was adjusted via multidimensional calibration weighting using demographic, historical electoral and geographic benchmarks. The size of the sample population for the Harris County Precinct 2 analysis was 624 (margin of error of +/- 3.92%), while the size of the sample population for the Harris County Precinct 4 analysis was 702 (margin of error of +/- 3.70%).
In addition to an examination of the vote intention among Harris County likely voters for countywide and statewide positions and in the two county commissioner elections on the ballot this year, this report also explores the opinions about the recent record property tax increase passed by Harris County Commissioners Court and on the use of Flock cameras for law enforcement purposes. A second report will focus on opinions about the possibility of a National Hockey League team and a new arena in Harris County.
Report 1. Harris County Election 2026: Countywide and Precincts 2 & 4
Highlights
71% of Harris County likely voters believe things in Harris County are headed in the wrong direction, with a majority of these voters thinking Texas (63%) and the United States (67%) are also headed in the wrong direction.
In the election for county judge of Harris County, Democrat Letitia Plummer (47%) leads Republican Orlando Sanchez (40%) by 7 percentage points, with 13% of likely voters still undecided.
The four issues identified by the largest proportion of likely voters as being the most important issue influencing their vote decision in the county judge election are crime and public safety (26%), property taxes (20%), voting rights (15%) and the candidates’ political party (13%).
Among likely Harris County voters, Democrat James Talarico (58%) holds a 22 point lead over Republican Ken Paxton (36%) in the contest for the U.S. Senate.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa (56%) holds a 16 point lead over Republican Greg Abbott (40%) in the gubernatorial race among Harris County likely voters.
When evaluating Harris County’s countywide elected officials, Sheriff Ed Gonzalez is viewed favorably (39%) by the largest proportion of likely voters, and unfavorably by 20%, with 41% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
In the race for Harris County Precinct 2 County Commissioner, Democrat Adrian Garcia (52%) leads Republican Richard Vega (40%) by 12 percentage points, with 8% undecided.
In the Harris County Precinct 4 County Commissioner election, Democrat Lesley Briones (49%) leads Republican Steve Radack (41%) by 8 percentage points, with 11% undecided.
72% of likely voters disapprove of the Sept. 2026 decision by the Harris County Commissioners Court to raise the county property tax rate by 7.6%, while 22% approve of this decision.
56% of likely voters oppose the use of Flock cameras for law enforcement purposes in Harris County, while 40% support their use.
Read the report to learn more about where likely Harris County voters stand on 2026 candidates and issues, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and partisanship.
Media Release October 13, 2026
Research Team
Co-Investigator & Co-Author Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher
Co-Investigator & Co-Author Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University
Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor
Savannah Sipole, Research Associate
Communications Team
Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design
Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications
Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant
Celeste Zamora, Director of Communications
Election Reports
Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.