The March 2026 Texas Republican primary races in Texas were expensive and often contentious, with some party nominations left undecided. Without surpassing the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, a number of statewide candidates are facing off in a May 26, 2026 primary runoff election.

At the top of the May ballot, will incumbent Sen. John Cornyn overcome the challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton? What issues are of most concern when making a decision of whom to support for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination? Who will win the Republican nomination for Texas Attorney General — state Rep. Mayes Middleton or Congressman Chip Roy? Will incumbent Commissioner Jim Wright be included on the Nov. General Election ballot for the opportunity to continue serving on the Railroad Commission of Texas? Or will his opponent Bo French get the chance to serve on the regulatory body over oil, natural gas, utilities and mining?  

To answer these questions and more, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a representative survey of likely May 2026 Texas Republican primary runoff voters to assess their vote intention and opinions in the Republican Texas U.S. Senate, Texas Attorney General and Texas Railroad Commissioner primary runoff elections.

Voters were contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform between April 28 and May 1, 2026. The sample population is 1,200 (with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%) and is representative of voters who are likely to participate in the statewide May 2026 Texas Republican primary runoff elections.

The Republican Nomination for the U.S. Senate

Ken Paxton (48%) leads John Cornyn (45%) by 3 percentage points among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff election, with 7% unsure how they would vote.

50% and 43% of likely May voters have a favorable and unfavorable opinion of Paxton, respectively, with 7% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.

47% and 49% of likely May voters have a favorable and unfavorable opinion of Cornyn, respectively, with 4% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.

When asked whether Cornyn or Paxton would be the strongest Republican general election candidate against Democrat James Talarico in November of 2026, the respondents were evenly divided. Forty-three percent of the respondents said Cornyn and 43% said Paxton had the best chance to defeat Talarico. Fourteen percent of the respondents were of the opinion that neither Cornyn nor Paxton is a stronger November candidate than the other. 

The respondents were asked which of six different policy issues matters the most to them when deciding who to vote for in the May 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff election. The six issues presented to them were election integrity, immigration and border security, inflation and cost of living, jobs and the economy, second amendment rights, and violent crime.  Among all the likely voters, the top three issues of concern were immigration and border security (33%), inflation and the cost of living (25%) and election integrity (22%), followed by jobs & the economy (14%), and with second amendment rights (4%) and violent crime (2%) in the low single digits. 

Among Paxton voters, immigration and border security (40%) and election integrity (31%) were the issues that matter the most to them when deciding for whom to vote. 

Cornyn voters cited inflation and the cost of living (36%) and jobs and the economy (19%) as the policy issues that matter the most to them when deciding for whom to vote. 

The Republican Nomination for Texas Attorney General

Mayes Middleton (48%) leads Chip Roy (39%) by 9 percentage points among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 Texas Attorney General Republican primary runoff election, with 13% unsure how they would vote.

The Republican Nomination for Texas Railroad Commissioner

Jim Wright (35%) leads Bo French (28%) by 7 percentage points among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner Republican primary runoff election, with, though, nearly two-fifths (37%) of likely voters still unsure for whom they would vote in this contest.

Favorability of Top Republicans

81% of likely May Republican primary runoff voters have a favorable opinion of Vice President JD Vance, 77% a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump, 76% a favorable opinion of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, and 75% a favorable opinion of Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

Read the report to learn more about where Texans stand on the 2026 primary runoff candidates for the U.S. Senate, Texas Attorney General and Texas Railroad Commissioner, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship.

Media Release May 5, 2016

Research Team 

Co-Investigator Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher

Co-Investigator Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design

Falon Boehm, Multimedia Specialist 

Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Manager

Election Reports

Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.