Redrawn congressional boundaries, retirements and new faces are changing the political landscape throughout the Lone Star State. In the Houston area, the Republican primary contests for Congressional Districts 9 and 38 are indicative of the new dynamics in Texas politics. Who will prevail in the fight for the Republican nomination for the hugely redrawn Congressional District 9 — state Rep. Briscoe Cain or Alexandra Mealer, the 2022 Republican nominee for Harris County judge? With the launch of U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt’s campaign for the U.S. Senate, Congressional District 38 has numerous candidates vying to represent the Republican Party on the November ballot. And while the lines of state legislative districts have remained the same, there are battles for Republican nominations in state House districts as well. How well known are these candidates and are they viewed favorably or unfavorably?

To address these questions, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted four representative surveys of likely March 2026 Republican primary voters in Texas’s Congressional District 9 and 38 as well as in state House Districts 128 and 138 to assess their preferences and opinions about candidates competing in these contests. The surveys were fielded Feb. 3-10 in English and Spanish, with a person’s likelihood of voting in the March Republican primary determined by a combination of their prospective intention to participate and their record of past primary participation in 2024 and in 2022. The number of respondents and the margin of error for each Republican congressional and legislative race varies, ranging from 800 respondents with a margin of error of +/-3.46% for Congressional District 38 and 400 respondents with a margin of error of +/-4.90% for Congressional District 9 to 300 respondents with a margin of error of +/-5.66% for Texas House Districts 126 and 138.  

Texas Congressional District 9 

In the Republican primary for Texas Congressional District 9, Alex Mealer leads Briscoe Cain among likely voters, 34% to 26%, followed by Dan Mims with 10%. Nearly one-fifth (19%) of the respondents are undecided.

Texas Congressional District 38

Half (50%) of voters in the GOP primary for Congressional District 38 remain undecided. Jon Bonck leads with 22% of the vote, followed by Shelly deZevallos (10%) and Michael Pratt (8%).

Texas House District 126 

Stan Stanart leads in the Republican primary for Texas House District 126, with 31% of the vote. Kelly Peterson has 24%, while 36% are unsure. 

Texas House District 138

Incumbent state Rep. Lacey Hull leads in the GOP primary for Texas House District 138, with nearly half (49%) of the vote. Josh Flynn trails with 13% of the vote, while Natalie Blasingame has 12%. 26% are unsure.

Read the report to learn more about where likely Republican primary voters stand on the 2026 primary candidates for Congressional Districts 9 and 38, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship, and about the vote intention for the candidates in Texas House Districts 126 and 138.

Media Release February 16, 2026

Research Team 

Co-Investigator & Co-Author Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher

Co-Investigator % Co-Author Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design

Falon Boehm, Multimedia Specialist 

Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Manager

Election Reports

Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.