DRAFT: Please do not cite without permission.
by Steven G. Craig* Alan Satterlee**
ABSTRACT
This paper estimates a three equation simultaneous model of the demand for police and determination of safety. A key contribution of the paper is to carefully consider the federalist environment that provides criminal justice resources. In particular, prisons are provided by state governments, jails by counties, and police (and arrests) by city governments. By estimating the level of Part I crime in cities, we can identify the simultaneous model based on crime control provision by cities. Our estimation results reveal the expected relationship between the criminal justice resources; that certainty of punishment (the probability of arrest) is a greater deterrent to crime than is punishment severity. The legal environment affecting private deterrence, measured as the ability of private citizens to legally carry concealed handguns, is not found to be statistically significant.
March, 1997