Reading List (version Jan 20)
The purpose of the class is to develop ideas for research papers as spelled out in reading list. The topics covered will be decided as we go along. We will list topics on this WEB-page. (Papers listed at available in JSTOR if nothing else is said.) Please download papers for class and read/skim ahead of time.
January 21st: Start of class.
January 26th: Bent talks about cyclicality of state/local budgets. Sorensen, Wu, Yosha (2001)
January 28th: Rauh: Sustainability of State Public Pensions (Steve)
February 9nd: Barro Tax Smoothing (from Romer’s book)
February 11th: Debt and Default (From Romer’s book)
February 16nd: Novy-Marx and Rauh: Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses (see also Bayoumi, Goldstein, and Woglom: Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from U.S. States)
February 18: Run simple regressions and write and abstract in class.
February 23: Bent will go over the paper ``How Do Politicians Save? Buffer Stock Management of Unemployment Insurance Finance’’ which we wrote during/after we taught this class for the first time. NOTE: If you like this paper, it is an obvious idea to try out this model on other government data, maybe the states’ general budget, and this will likely be publishable.
March 2: Steve will go over his paper with Behrman: The Distribution of Public Services: An Exploration of Local Governmental Preferences (AER 1987)
March 4: Bent will go over the paper Pension Funding and the Public Sector by Olivia Mitchell and Robert Smith REStat 1994. Yilin found numbers for underfunding 2008-2013, so we will need volunteers to find/contruct data for earlier years.
March 30: Bent will go over the theory of unit roots.
April 1st: Bent will give an introduction to Cointegration (please look at the first few pages of the notes to get the main idea) and Sergiy will talk briefly. We may also talk a little about panel data more generally Note on Panel Data (this note is written for practitioners and easily read).
April 15: Bent will talk briefly about Panel Cointegration and please be prepared to display your results the way that Jon did a week ago.