The August employment numbers reported this month by the Texas Workforce Commission in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that regional employment growth in Houston had slowed to a year-over-year growth rate of only 2.08%. That compares with last August’s growth rate of 4.34%. Of course, these recent numbers are likely to be revised during BLS’s March rebenchmarking of the data, but at this point we expect that no more than 15,000 jobs will ultimately be added to the 2008 count, meaning that this August’s growth rate is probably closer to about 2.67% which is still far below last year’s level.
The culprit remains weakness in the energy independent portion of our economic base, which is barely growing at a meager .87% pace, and a slowdown in all of the region’s secondary sectors. Ike’s impact will lower these growth rates even more, but that impact will only be temporary. So far, it appears that Houston is following the path we forecast in May. |