IRF

Institute for Regional Forecasting
Keeping you informed about economic developments!


CONTACT US
Institute for Regional Forecasting
University of Houston
Department of Economics
204 McElhinney Hall
Houston, Texas 77204-5019
Phone: (713) 743-3869
Fax: (713) 743-3969
E-mail: Patsy Woods

The IRF is a Division of The University of Houston's
Center for Public Policy in cooperation
With the Department of Economics.
   
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Join the elite group of firms sponsoring the IRF's semiannual symposia. IRF sponsors include many of the region's strongest banks, home builders, engineering firms, financial advisors, the commercial real estate firms nationally known for the expertise in property development, aquistion, management and advisement.    More Information >>>
OUR spring 2009 SPONSORS
HOUSTON UPDATE

Houston Update - November 7, 2009

IRF’s New Houston Forecast Released At Symposium

Full Story>>

Commentary

Understanding Regional Employment Statistics

Sometimes it can be terribly confusing understanding our local employment numbers and interpreting their implications for the Houston economy. Part of the problem is that novices and the media want to treat regional employment numbers like they do the national numbers, a habit that is reinforced by the way the Texas Workforce themselves report the data. The fact is that these numbers are neither the same, nor do they carry the same meaning. Full Story>>

Dr. Smith's commentaries from November 20, 2004 through the present are now available in Adobe Acrobat format. Click here to download the file.

CHARTS GRAPHS AND TABLES
 
RECESSION WATCH
International:
National:

Houston Area:

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Monthly Recap:

Monthly recap for September and October, 2009

There were many encouraging signs about the economy, but if there was one main theme it is that the employment picture both here and abroad remains rather dismal. Initial claims for unemployment remain in the U.S. above 500,000 per week, and even though current levels have declined by more than 100,000, they still remain higher than at any time during the previous two recessions. On the positive side, the housing market seems to have stabilized and consumer spending has held up relatively well. Both have to show resilience to the eventual removal of special stimuli, such as the “cash for clunkers” and “first time home buyer” programs, before we will know that the stabilization is real, however.

There have been several pieces of good news for Houston. Energy prices have reached year-to-date highs and at least for oil at a profitable level again. Also, the rise in the Purchasing Managers Index to 50 suggests that the worst of the recession is behind Houston. Nonetheless, similar to the nation, Houston continues to lose jobs, though at least the losses are about a third of what they were this spring.

As will be discussed at this fall’s symposium, the recovery has yet to start. Labor markets locally, nationally, and internationally must at least stabilize before we get too euphoric over the beginnings of a recovery.

NEWS FLASHES

News Flash 9/11/209

Houston’s Purchasing Manager’s Index Rises for the Fourth Consecutive Month

The Houston Purchasing Managers Index, produced by the National Association of Purchasing Management - Houston, rose in August for the fourth consecutive month to 46.8. Like its national counterpart, levels of the HPMI over 50 indicate production gains over the near term; readings below 50, show near term contraction. While the current level indicates further contraction in the regional economy, it also suggests a major slowing in that process compared to this spring when the HMPI hit a record low of 39. It is also positive that the upward trend is now 4 months old, suggesting that any one month’s figure was not just an aberration.

This news follows the release earlier this month from the national organization which reported an index of 52.9 for the country as a whole, the highest level since June 2007 and the first level above 50 in 18 months. Part of the current stimulus is related to the extreme low level of inventories among most U.S. manufacturers. Thus, any small increases in demand require increased production. Still, more data is needed to confirm these trends at both the national and regional level. For the U.S. we’ll want to see the index remain above 50 for a substantial period of time and for Houston it will be crucial that the index rise above 50 before year’s end.

> Read Prior News Flashes.


About the IRF

Welcome to the Home Page of the Institute for Regional Forecasting. We are now embarking on our fourth year as a separate division of the University of Houston's Center for Public Policy (CPP). During our first year of reorganization, we made great strides in improving our overall economics program and our popular symposium series on the local economy and real estate markets. All of the real estate and economic forecasting operations of the U of H's Center for Public Policy are now exclusively located within the Institute for Regional Forecasting (IRF) headed by economics professor Dr. Barton Smith.  As a by-product of this reorganization, there are now much greater ties between the IRF and U of H's economics department. The IRF has been given office space by the economics department, which also provides us a variety of administrative services.  In turn, the IRF supports both graduate and undergraduate economics students with research assistantships and helps underwrite many economics department programs. Since our first year we have attempted to improve our communications capabilities through enhancements to our web page, our publications, and our email alerts. We have been gratified by the success of our Internet registration program which now accounts for approximately half of our symposium registrations. Yet, despite this modernization, today's IRF continues to provide the same types of economic analyses that had been the hallmark of the CPP for almost 2 decades. The primary difference is that the new organization and funding allows us to make it easier than ever for Houstonians to access current data and analyses on the local economy. We now have Houston businesses signing up on a waiting list to become sponsors of our ever popular symposium series which in November focuses upon the prospects of the local macro economy and in May focuses upon current and future trends in regional real estate markets.

Our most popular publication, DATABook Houston, is now produced and distributed to subscribers within just a few days after the end of each month, containing all of the most up-to-date data on the Houston economy and those factors affecting the economy. Furthermore, the information in that publication can now be obtained on CDs so users can quickly retrieve and manipulate the data files for their own purposes. In addition, the IRF staff can now answer your questions about Houston or about IRF services by either phone, email or this upgraded web site.