Dr.Toshiyuki Yuasa

toshi

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PUBL 6415: Decision Science in Public Affairs

Spring 2011
Yuasa
Class Room: M 107
Tu 5:30-8:30PM

The purpose of this course is to introduce application of mathematical modeling (management science) in public affairs. In recent years, more and more managers in both public and private sectors utilize mathematical models to solve their decision making problems. Of course, there are pros and cons on relying on management science. However, it is widely recognized that the logical approach to problem solving is valuable for all types of professions in various organizations (Taylor 2007). In this course, students will explore the various tools in management science. Each of the modeling techniques are learned through simple examples. It might be, however, hard to perceive usefulness of abstract quantitative approaches to actual applications. Therefore, we are going to spend more time reviewing case studies to learn the scientific approach of solving various decision making problems.

Textbook

Lawrence, John A. Jr., and Barry A. Pasternack. 2002. Applied Management Science: Modeling, spreadsheet Analysis, and Communication for Decision Making, Second Edition, NY: Wiley.

Grade

  • Participation: 10%
  • Pop Quiz: 10%
  • Midterm Exam: 40%
  • Final Exam: 40%

Exams

The First Exam: Lecture Series 1 through Lecture Series 4 (Tentatively March 2nd).   This could be either in class or take home exam. The format will be announced in class.

The Final Exam: Provide a take home exam document on April 27th (Last day of class) and tern in by May 4th.

Lecture series 1: Introduction to Management Science

Required Readings

Topics:
Identifying and Structuring Problems
Crafting a model
Conceptual Review on Cost-Benefit Analysis

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 1)

Pidd, Michael. 2009. Tools for thinking: modeling in management science, 3rd edition. New York: Wiley. Chapter3 Problem, Problem….

Powell, Stephen G. and Kenneth R. Baker. 2011. Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheet. New York: Wiley. Chapter 2 Modeling in a Problem-Solving Framework

Sowell, Thomas. 2009. Applied Economics: Thinking beyond Stage One. New York: Basic Book. Chapter 1 "Politics versus Economics."

Boardman, A. E., D. H. Greenberg, et al. 2006. Cost-Benefit Analysis: Concepts and Practice Third Edition. Upper Saddle River, Pearson Prentice Hall. Chapter 1 Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis, Chapter 2 Conceptual Foundations of Cost-Benefit Analysis, Chapter 3 Basic Microeconomic Foundations of Cost-Benefit Analysis

Gupta, Dipak. 2011. Analyzing Public Policy: Concepts, Tools, & Techniques, Second edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. Chapter 14 Choosing the Best Alternative: Cost-Benefit Analysis

Meier, Kenneth, and Laurence J. O’Toole, Jr. 2009 “The Proverbs of New Public Management: Lessons From an Evidence-Based Research Agenda” The American Review of Public Administration 39 (1): 4-22.

Management Science in Action

Labe, Russ, Raj Nigam, and Steve Spence. “Management Science at Merrill Lynch Private Client Group,” Interfaces 29, no.2 (March/April 1999): 1-14.

Forgione, G. “Corporate MS Activities: An Update,” Interface, vol.33, no.1, 1983.

Hall, R. “What’s So Scientific about MS/OR?” Interfaces, vol.15, 1985

Sonntag, C. and Grossman, T. “End-User Modeling Improves R&D Management at AgrEvo Canada, 1999. Inc.” Interfaces, vol.29, no.5, 1999.

Pros-cons of Cost-Benefit Analyses

Zerbe Jr, R. O. (1998). "Is Cost-Benefit Analysis Legal? Three Rules." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 17(3): 419-456.

Williams, A. (1972). "Cost benefit analysis: bastard science and/or insidious poison in the body politick." Journal of Public Economics 1(2): 199-225.

Meier, Kenneth, and Laurence J. O’Toole, Jr. (2009) “The Proverbs of New Public Management: Lessons From an Evidence-Based Research Agenda” The American Review of Public Administration 39 (1): 4-22.

Heinrich, Carolyn. (2007) “Evidence-Based Policy and Performance Management: Challenges and Prospects in Two Parallel Movements” The American Review of Public Administration 37 (3): 255-277.

Green, Linda V., and Peter J. Kolesar. (2004) “Improving Emergency Responsiveness with Management Science. Management Science 50 (8): 1001-1014.

Kelman, S. 1981. "Cost-Benefit Analysis: An Ethical Critique (with replies)." AEI Journal on Government and Society Regulation:33–40.

Lynn, Laurence E., Jr. 2001. “Public Management” draft.

Alford, John, and Owen Hughes. (2008) “Public Value Pragmatism as the Next Phase of Public Management” The American Review of Public Administration 38 (2): 130-148.

Quantitative and Qualitative CBA

Vining, A. R. and A. E. Boardman The Choice of Formal Policy Analysis Methods in Canada

van den Bergh, Jcjm. 2004. "Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis." Ecological Economics 48 (4):385-93.

Pennings, Joost M. E., and Ale Smidts (2003) “The Shape of Utility Functions and Organizational Behavior. Management Science 49 (9): 1251-1263.

GUIDE FOR BASIC EXCEL SKILLS

SPREADSHEET MODELING

Edwards, J., P. Finlay, and J. Wilson. “The role the OR specialist in ‘do it yourself’ spreadsheet development,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol.127, no.1, 2000.

Caine, D. J., and A. J. Robinson. 1993. “Spreadsheet Modeling: Guidelines for Model Development.” Management Decision 31, 38-44.

Conway D.G., and C.T. Ragsdale. 1997. “Modeling Optimization Problems in the Unstructured World of Spreadsheets.” Omega 25, 313-322.

Panko, R. R. 1999. “Applying Code Inspection to Spreadsheet Testing.” Journal of Management Information System 16, 159-176.

Lecture series 2: Linear and Integer Programming Models

Topics:

  • Difference Equation
  • Linear Programming
  • Sensitivity Analysis
    • Estimating and Interpreting Shadow Price, Opportunity Cost, Reduced Cost
    • Modeling diseconomy of scale & Economy of scale

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 2)

Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: W.W. Norton. Chapter 3 The Model Choice; Chapter 4 Difference Equation.

Pidd, Michael. 2009. Tools for thinking: modeling in management science, 3rd edition. New York: Wiley. Chapter 9 Optimization modeling- linear programing

Baker, Kenneth R. 2006. Optimization Modeling with Spreadsheet. Belmont: Thomson. Chapter 1 Introduction to Spreadsheet Models for Optimization.

Management Science in Action

Yoshino, T., T. Sasaki, et al. (1995). "The Traffic-Control System on the Hanshin Expressway." Interfaces 25(1): 94-108.

Hilal, S. S. and W. Erikson (1981). "Matching Supplies to Save Lives: Linear Programming the Production of Heart Valves." Interfaces 11(6): 48-56.

Roush, W. B., R. H. Stock, et al. (1994). "Using Chance-Constrained Programming for Animal Feed Formulation at Agway." Interfaces 24(2): 53-58.

Subramanian, R., R. P. Scheff, Jr., et al. (1994). "Coldstart: Fleet Assignment at Delta Air Lines." Interfaces 24(1): 104-120.

Brown, G., J. Keegan, et al. (2001). "The Kellogg Company Optimizes Production, Inventory, and Distribution." Interfaces 31(6): 1-15.

Christoph Haehling von, L., E. Harbauer, et al. (1987). "RRSP Flood: LP to the Rescue." Interfaces 17(4): 27-33.

Greenberg, H. J. (1993). "How to Analyze the Results of Linear Programs–Part 1: Preliminaries." Interfaces 23(4): 56-67.

Fletcher, L. R., H. Alden, et al. (1999). "Long-term forest ecosystem planning at Pacific Lumber." Interfaces 29(1): 90–111.

Sexton, T. R., S. Sleeper, et al. (1994). "Improving pupil transportation in North Carolina." Interfaces 24(1): 87-103.

Lecture series 3: Applications of Linear and Integer Programming Models

Linear Programming

Topics:

  • Formulation of Linear Programs
    • Standardized Spreadsheet
    • Tailored Spreadsheet
  • Various simpler LP examples
    • Blending Model
    • Network flow and Assignment Model
    • Workforce planning
    • Maximizing the Flow

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 3)

Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: W.W. Norton. Chapter 11 Linear Programming.

Management Science in Action

Miller, Mark K., and Laura McCann (2000) “Policy Analysis of the Use of Hepatitis B, Haemophilus Influenzae Type B-, Streptococcus Pneumoniae-Conjugate and Rotavirus Vaccines in national Immunization Schedules.” Health Economics 9: 19-35.

Higle, J. L. and S. W. Wallace (2003). "Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty in Linear Programming." Interfaces 33(4): 53.

Dantzig, G. B. 1990. "The diet problem." Interfaces 20 (4):43-7.

Lancaster, L. M. 1992. "The Evolution of the Diet Model in Managing Food Systems." Interfaces 22:59-68.

Might, R. 1987. "Decision support for aircraft and munitions procurement." Interfaces 17 (5):55–62.

Oggier, Christophe, Emmanuel Frangniere, and Jeremy Stuby. 2005. “Nestle Improves Its Financial Reporting with Management Science.” Interfaces 35 (4): 271-280.

Rubin, D. S. and H. M. Wagner (1990). "Shadow Prices: Tips and Traps for Managers and Instructors." Interfaces 20(4): 150-157.

Whitworth, Mark H. 2006. “Designing the Response to an Anthrax Attack” Interfaces 36 (6): 562-568.

Dantzig, G. B. 1990. "The diet problem." Interfaces 20 (4):43-7.

Integer Programming

Topics:

  • The Simplex Method
  • Integer Linear Programming (ILP)
    • Integrity conditions
    • LP Relaxation
    • Bound
    • Rounding
    • Branch-and-Bound (B&B)
  • Binary Variables
  • Capital Budgeting Model

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 4 & 5)

Management Science in Action

Parnell, G. S., G. E. Bennett, et al. (2003). "Improving Resource Allocation Within the National Reconnaissance Office." Interfaces 32(3): 77-90.

Croxton, Keely L., Bernard Gendron, and Thomas L. Magnanti (2003) “A Comparison of Mixed-Integer Programming Models for Nonconvex Piecewise Linear Cost Minimization Problems” Management Science 49 (9): 1268-1273.

Blake, J. T. and J. Donald (2002). "Mount Sinai Hospital Uses Integer Programming to Allocate Operating Room Time." Interfaces 32(2): 63-73.

Tavakoli, A. and C. Lightner (2004). "Implementing a mathematical model for locating EMS vehicles in fayetteville, NC." Computers & Operations Research 31(9): 1549-1563.

Nauss, R. M. and R. E. Markland (1981). "Theory and Application of an Optimizing Procedure for Lock Box Location Analysis." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 27(8): 855-865.

Carraway, R. L., J. M. Cummins, et al. (1990). "Solving Spreadsheet-Based Integer Programming Models: An Example from International Telecommunications." Decision Sciences 21(4): 808.

Markland, R. E. and R. M. Nauss (1983). "Improving Transit Check Clearing Operations at Maryland National Bank." Interfaces 13(1): 1-9.

Cutshall, Rex., Srinagesh Gavirneni, and Kenneth Schultz. 2007. “Indiana Unviersity’s Kelley School of Business Uses Integer Programming to Form Equitable, Cohesive Student Teams.” Interfaces 37 (3) 265-276.

Spencer, T., A. J. Brigandi, D. R. Dargon, and M. J. Sheehan. 1990. "AT&T’s telemarketing site selection system offers customer support." Interfaces 20 (1):83–96.

Martin, C. H. 2004. "Ohio University's College of Business Uses Integer Programming to Schedule Classes." Interfaces 34 (6):460-5.

Taylor III, B. W., L. J. Moore, E. R. Clayton, K. R. Davis, and T. R. Rakes. 1985. "An Integer Nonlinear Goal Programming Model for the Deployment of State Highway Patrol Units." Management Science 31 (11):1335-47.

Tingley, Kim M., and Judith S. Liebman. (1984) “A Goal Programming Example in Public Health Resource Allocation. Management Science 30 (3): 279-289.

Benjamin, Colin O. (1985) “A Linear Goal-Programming Model for Public-Sector Project Selection. Journal of the Operational Research and Society 36 (1): 13-23.

Data Envelopment Analysis

Baker, Kenneth R. 2006. Optimization Modeling with Spreadsheet. Belmont: Thomson. Chapter 5 Linear Programming Formulations: Data Envelopment Analysis.

Boussofiane, A., R.G.Dyson, and E. Thanassoulis. 1991. "Applied data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, 52: 1-15.

Golany, B. and J. E. Storbeck. 1999. "A Data Envelopment Analysis of the Operational Efficiency of Bank Branches" Interfaces (May/June): 14-26.

Diamond, Arthur Jr. M., Jeanette N. Medewitz. 1990. "Use of Data Envelopment Analysis in an Evaluation of the Efficiency of the DEEP Program for Economic Education." Journal of Economic Education, Summer: 337-354.

Thanassoulis, E., and P. Dunstan. 1994. “Guiding Schools to Improved Performance Using Data Envelopment Analysis: An Illustration with Data from a Local Education Authority,” Jouranl of Operational Research and Society, Vol. 45, No.11: 1247-1262.

Lecture Series 4: Network Analysis

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 4)

Management Science in Action

Rakshit, A., N. Krishnamurthy, et al. (1996). "System Operations Advisor: A Real-Time Decision Support System for Managing Airline Operations at United Airlines." Interfaces 26(2): 50-58.

Ireland, P., R. Case, et al. (2004). "The Canadian Pacific Railway Transforms Operations by Using Models to Develop Its Operating Plans." Interfaces 34(1): 5-14.

Hansen, P. and R. E. Wendell (1982). "A Note on Airline Commuting." Interfaces 12(1): 85-87.

Braklow, J. W., W. W. Graham, et al. (1992). "Interactive Optimization Improves Service and Performance for Yellow Freight System." Interfaces 22(1): 147-172.

Vemuganti, R. R., M. Oblak, et al. (1989). "Network Models For Fleet Management." Decision Sciences 20(1): 182.

Bausch, D. O., G. G. Brown, et al. (1991). "Mobilizing Marine Corps Officers." Interfaces 21(4): 26-38.

LeBlanc, L. J., D. Randels, Jr., et al. (2000). "Heery International's Spreadsheet Optimization Model for Assigning Managers to Construction Projects." Interfaces 30(6): 95-106.

Ambs, K., S. Cwilich, et al. (2000). "Optimizing Restoration Capacity in the AT&T Network." Interfaces 30(1): 26-44.

Sancho, N. G. F. 1988. "On the Maximum Expected Flow in a Network." The Journal of the Operational Research Society 39 (5):481-5.

Current, J. R., C. S. ReVelle, and J. L. Cohon. 1988. "The minimum-covering/shortest path problem." Decision Science 19:490-503.

Ernst, A. T., R. G. J. Mills, et al. (2003). "Scheduling Appointments at Trade Events for the Australian Tourist Commission." Interfaces 33(3): 12-23.

Prior, R. C., R. L. Slavens, J. Trimarco, V. Akgun, E. G. Feitzinger, and C. F. Hong. 2004. "Menlo Worldwide Forwarding Optimizes Its Network Routing." Interfaces 34 (1):26-38.

Kapucu, Naim. 2006. “Interagency Communication Networks During Emergencies: Boundary Spanners in Multiagency Coordination” The American Review of Public Administration, Jun 2006; vol. 36: pp. 207 - 225.

Eglene, Ophelia, Sharon S. Dawes, and Carrie A. Schneider. 2007. “Authority and Leadership Patterns in Public Sector Knowledge Networks” The American Review of Public Administration, Mar 2007; vol. 37: pp. 91 - 113.

Musso, Juliet A., Christopher Weare, Nail Oztas, and William E. Loges. 2006. “Neighborhood Governance Reform and Networks of Community Power in Los Angeles” The American Review of Public Administration, Mar 2006; vol. 36: pp. 79 - 97.

Lecture series 5: Project Management (Project Scheduling Models)

Topic

  • CPN/PERT
  • Project Management with Microsoft Project

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 5)

Management Science in Action

Schonberger, R. J. (1981). "Why Projects Are "Always" Late: A Rationale Based on Manual Simulation of a PERT/CPM Network." Interfaces 11(5): 66-70.

Pich, Michael T., Christoph H. Loch, and Arnoud De Meyer 2002. “On Uncertainty Ambiguity,andComplexity in Project Management” Management Science, August 2002; 48: 1008 - 1023.

Rolf H. Möhring, Andreas S. Schulz, Frederik Stork, and Marc Uetz. 2003. “Solving Project Scheduling Problems by Minimum Cut Computations” Management Science, March 2003; 49: 330 - 350.

Tormos, P., A. Lova. 2001. “Tools for Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling and Control: Forward and Backward Slack Analysis” The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 52, No. 7 (Jul., 2001), pp. 779-788

Chapman, C., and S. Ward. 2003. “Constructively Simple Estimating: A Project Management Example” The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 54, No. 10 (Oct., 2003), pp. 1050-1058

Zhu, G. J.F. Bard, and G Yu. 2005. “Disruption Management for Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling “ The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 56, No. 4 (Apr., 2005), pp. 365-381

Sandøy, M., T. Aven, D. Ford. 2005. “On Integrating Risk Perspectives in Project Management” Risk Management, Vol. 7, No. 4 (2005), pp. 7-21

Rottman, Joseph W., L. Douglas Smith, David A. Long, and Chuck Crofts. 2007. “Implementing Judicial Management Systems Within an Integrated Justice Information Framework: A Case Study on Information Systems Development in the Public Sector” The American Review of Public Administration, Dec 2007; vol. 37: pp. 436 - 457.

Rocheleau, Bruce. 2000. “Prescriptions for Public-Sector Information Management: A Review, Analysis, and Critique” The American Review of Public Administration, Dec 2000; vol. 30: pp. 414 - 435.

Lecture series 6: Decision Models

Topic

  • Review of Probability theory
  • Bayesian theory
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Utility theory and decision making

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 6)

Denardo, Eric V. 2002. The Science of Decision Making: A Problem-Based Approach Using Excel. New York: Wiley. Chapter 9 Decision Trees and Generalizations

Myerson, Roger B. 2005. Probability Models for Economic Decisions. New York: Cengage Learning, Chapter 2.

Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: W.W. Norton. Chapter 12 Decision Analysis.

Gupta, Dipak. 2011. Analyzing Public Policy: Concepts, Tools, & Techniques, Second edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. Chapter 13 The Elements of Strategic Thinking: Decision Tree and Game Theory

Management Science in Action

Heian, B. C. and J. R. Gale (1988). "Mortgage Selection Using a Decision-Tree Approach: An Extension." Interfaces 18(4): 72-83.

Wenstop, F. E. and A. J. Carlsen (1988). "Ranking Hydroelectric Power Projects with Multicriteria Decision Analysis." Interfaces 18(4): 36-48.

Zahedi, F. (1986). "The Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Survey of the Method and Its Applications." Interfaces 16(4): 96-108.

Barron, F. H. and M. Connor (1985). "Payoff Matrices Pay off at Hallmark." Interfaces 15(4): 20-25.

Bodin, L. and S. I. Gass (2003). "On teaching the analytic hierarchy process." Computers & Operations Research 30(10): 1487-1497.

Corner, J. L. and C. W. Kirkwood (1991). "Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970-1989." Operations Research 39(2): 206-219.

Howard, R. A. (1988). "Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise." Management Science 34(6): 679-695.

Clemen, R. T. and R. C. Kwit (2001). "The Value of Decision Analysis at Eastman Kodak Company, 1990-1999." Interfaces 31(5): 74-92.

Urbanovich, E., E. E. Young, et al. (2003). "Early Detection of High-Risk Claims at the Workers' Compensation Board of British Columbia." Interfaces 33(4): 15-26.

Stonebraker, J. S. (2002). "How Bayer Makes Decisions to Develop New Drugs." Interfaces 32(6): 77-90.

Ahlbrecht, M. and M. Weber (1997). "An Empirical Study on Intertemporal Decision Making under Risk." Management Science 43(6): 813-826.

Anderson, Stephen H., and Natalia V. Smirnova. (2006) “A Study of Executive Budget-Balancing Decisions” American Review of Public Administration 36 (3): 323-336.

Critiques

Brown, R. (1970). "Do Managers Find Decision Analysis Useful." Harvard Business Review 48(3): 78-89.

Smith, James E., and Detlof von Winterfeldt. (2004) “Decision Analysis in ‘Management Science’” Management Science 50 (5): 561-574.

Hammond, J. S., R. L. Kenney, and H. Raiffaa (1998). "The Hidden Traps in Decision Making." Harvard Business Review 76(5): 47-60.

Brown, R. V. (1992). "The state of the art of decision analysis: A personal perspective." Interfaces 22(6): 5-14.

Lecture series 7: Simulation

Topics:

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Simulation with Excel
  • Simulation with Crystal Ball

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 10)

Simulation with Excel
Evans, James R., and David L. Olson. 2002. Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis. New York: Prentice Hall. Chapter 2 Simulation using Excel

Simulation with Excel add-ins
Myerson, Roger B. 2005. Probability Models for Economic Decisions. New York: Cengage Learning, Chapter 2.

Simulation with Crystal Ball
Powell, Stephen G., and Kenneth R. Baker 2009. Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets. New York: Wiley. Chapter 15 Monte Carlo Simulation

Pidd, Michael. 2009. Tools for thinking: modeling in management science, 3rd edition. New York: Wiley. Chapter 10 Computer simulation – visual interactive modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

Management Science in Action

Saltzman, R. M. and V. Mehrotra (2001). "A Call Center Uses Simulation to Drive Strategic Change." Interfaces 31(3): 87-101.

Dekker, R., M. B. M. d. Koster, et al. (2004). "Improving Order-Picking Response Time at Ankor's Warehouse." Interfaces 34(4): 303-313.

Russell, R. A., R. Hickle, et al. (1986). "Simulation of a CD Portfolio." Interfaces 16(3): 49-54.

Cebry, M. E., A. H. deSilva, et al. (1992). "Management Science in Automating Postal Operations: Facility and Equipment Planning in the United States Postal Service." Interfaces 22(1): 110-130.

Altschuler, S., D. Batavia, et al. (2002). "Pricing Analysis for Merrill Lynch Integrated Choice." Interfaces 32(1): 5-19.

Goldberg, Michael A. (1973)”Simulation, Synthesis and Urban Public Decision-Making” Management Science 20 (4): 629-643.

Brennan, J. E., B. L. Golden, et al. (1992). "Go with the flow: Improving Red Cross bloodmobiles using simulation analysis." Interfaces 22(5): 1-13.

Shtrichman, O., R. Ben-Haim, and M. Pollatschek (2001). "Using Simulation to Increase Efficiency in an Army Recruitment Office." Interfaces 31(4): 61-70.

Gavirneni, S., D. J. Morrice, et al. (2004). "Simulation Helps Maxager Shorten Its Sales Cycle." Interfaces 34(2): 87-96.

Lecture series 8: Inventory Models

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 8)

 

Lecture 9: Queing Models

Readings

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 9)

Provide more readings later

Management Science in Action

Alden, J. M., L. D. Burns, et al. (2006). "General Motors Increases Its Production Throughput." INTERFACES 36(1): 6-25.

Kotha, S. K., M. P. Barnum, et al. (1996). "KeyCorp Service Excellence Management System." INTERFACES 26(1): 54-74.

McKeown, P. G. (1979). "An Application of Queueing Analysis to the New York State Child Abuse and Maltreatment Register Telephone Reporting System." Interfaces 9(3): 20-25.

Gilliam, R. R. (1979). "An Application of Queueing Theory to Airport Passenger Security Screening." Interfaces 9(4): 117-123.

Kolesar, P. (1979). "A Quick and Dirty Response to the Quick and Dirty Crowd; Particularly to Jack Byrd's "The Value of Queueing Theory"." Interfaces 9(2): 77-82.

Swersey, A. J., L. Goldring, et al. (1993). "Improving Fire Department Productivity: Merging Fire and Emergency Medical Units in New Haven." Interfaces 23(1): 109-129.

Lecture series 10: Markov Models

Readings

Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: W.W. Norton. Chapter 7 Markov Models.

Lecture series 11: Forecasting

Lawrence and Pasternack (Chapter 7)

Lecture notes on Forecasting (will be posted on Blackboard)

Forecasting using Crystal Ball
Powell, Stephen G., and Kenneth R. Baker 2009. Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets. New York: Wiley. Chapter 9 Short-term forecasting

Management Science in Action

Andrews, B. H. and S. M. Cunningham. 1995. "L. L. Bean Improves Call-Center Forecasting." Interfaces 25(6): 1-13.

Hueter, J. and W. Swart. 1998. "An Integrated Labor-Management System for Taco Bell." Interfaces 28(1): 75-91.

Bayiz, M. and C. S. Tang. 2004. "An Integrated Planning System for Managing the Refurbishment of Thermoluminescent Badges." Interfaces 34(5): 383-393.

Clements, D. W. and R. A. Reid. 1994. "Analytical MS/OR Tools Applied to a Plant Closure." Interfaces 24(2): 1-12.

Armstrong, J. S., R. U. Ayres, et al. 1984. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research [with Comment and Reply]." Interfaces 14(6): 52-66.

Herbig, P., J. Milewicz, et al. 1993. "Forecasting: who, what, when and how." Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems 12(2): 16-21.

Aaron, H. J. 2000. "Seeing through the Fog: Policymaking with Uncertain Forecasts." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 19 (2):193-206.

Li, X., C. L. Ang, et al. 1999. "An intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning." Journal of Forecasting 18(3): 181-204.

Wilson, J. H. and D. Allison-Koerber. 1992. "Combining Subjective and Objective Forecasts Improves Results." The Journal of Business Forecasting.