# Dr.Toshiyuki Yuasa

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## PUBL 6410: Quantitative Methods 1

Fall 2010

Tuesday 5:30 – 8:30pm

208-AH

Instructor: Toshiyuki Yuasa, Ph.D.

Office: 312 B-PGH

E-mail toshi@uh.edu

Phone: 713-743-3931

Office Hours: by appointment only

Quantitative Methods I teaches students how to apply the principles and practices of statistics to problems of policy analysts and managers in public and non-profit organizations. The objectives of this course are to help students to understand the basic concepts of probability and statistics. Also this course provides students skills to perform applied statistical analyses using Excel and R Statistical Software Package.

### Textbooks

#### Required

Moore, David, George P. McCabe, William M. Duckworth, and Layth Alwan. 2011. The Practice of Statistics for Business and Economics, 3rd Edition. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer.

Other required readings are available at the course Blackboard or Library Reserve Desk.

### University Policies

*If you need special accommodation to meet any of the requirements of this course, please contact me by the second class session.

### Grades and Grading Policy

Final Grades will be comprised of the following components:

- Midterm Exam: 20% of the total grade
- Assignments: 40% of the total grade
- Term Paper: 30% of the total grade
- Participation 10% of the total grade

### Examinations

There will be one exam during the course of the semester. Exam questions will be based on information covered in the assigned reading materials as well as material presented during class lecture.

Students must provide sufficient justification for missing an exam (it must be a documented emergency) to be entitled to qualify for a makeup exam. It is the responsibility of the student to contact the instructor (by voice mail if necessary) on or before the date of the missed exam in order to arrange for a make-up.

#### Exam Date (tentative schedule)

- October 12th — Exam (Due October 19th)

### Assignments

There will be several assignments over the course of the semester. For data analyses, students are using assigned statistical tool(s) and to provide a written report of their findings. Both assignment documents and data sets are available from our class Blackboard. If the data exceed the upload capacity of blackboard, I will send you via email.

**With no exceptions**, assignments must be turned in at the beginning of class on the day they are due. Late homework will not be graded. Those students who miss class on the days in which homework is assigned will not be given an extension to complete that assignment.

### Term Paper

Each student picks a dataset relating his or her area of interests. There are various datasets available at ICPSR (Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research), CPS (Current Population Survey), NHIS (National Health Interview Survey), and others. Of course, you can use the dataset collected by your organization. Throughout the course, I assign an analysis report on your data set as a part of weekly assignments. At the end of the semester, you can put together your data analysis reports and write up your term paper.

### Schedule of Lectures and the Corresponding Readings

Lecture Series 1: Statistics for Public Manager and Policy Analysts

Hoover, Kenneth R. The Elements of Social Scientific Thinking. St Martin Press. Chapter 1, 2, and 3.

Nardi, Peter M. 2003. Doing Survey Research: A Guide to Quantitative Methods. Boston: Allyn and Bacon. *Chapter 1: Why We Do Research? Everyday Thinking vs. Scientific Thinking*

Berman, Evan M. 2006. Essential Statistics for Public Managers and Policy Analysts, 2nd edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 1: Why Research? An Introduction*

Statistics for Public Administration: Practical Uses for Better Decision Making. ICMA Press. *Chapter 1: You Have to Answer a Question – Now What Do You Do? *(http://bookstore.icma.org/FreeDocs/StatisticsCHPT1.pdf)

Asher, Herbert. 2001. Polling and The Public Opinion: What Every Citizen Should Know, fifth edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 9: Polling and Democracy. *

Maier, Mark. 1999. The Data Game: Controversies in Social Science Statistics, 3rd edition, M.E.Sharp. *Chapter 2, 3, 8, 11* & Conclusion

Derr, Janice. 2000. Statistical Consulting: A Guide to Effective Communication. Pacific Grove: Duxbury Press.* Chapter 7 Communicating about Statistics*

**Data Analysis
**

**Introduction to R in Excel**

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. *Chapter 1 & 2 *

Muenchen, Robert A., and Joseph Hilbe. 2010. R for Stata Users. New York: Springer. *Chapter 2. Installing and Updating R*

Lecture Series 2: *Looking at Data*

Required Readings

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 1. The Measurement of Concepts*

M,M,D&S *Chapter 1: Examining Distribution *

Berman, Evan M. 2006. Essential Statistics for Public Managers and Policy Analysts, 2nd edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. Chapter 2: Univariate Analysis - Description

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 3. Describing Variables and Making Comparison *

More, David S. 2003. Statistics: Concepts and Controversies. New York: W.H.Freeman. *Chapter 10 Graphs, Good and Bad; Chapter 11 Describing distribution with Numbers*

Huff, D. and I. Geis (1993). *How to lie with statistics*, WW Norton & Company. Chapter 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 9

**The data analysis assignment and Journal articles of this section’s reading are downloadable from this course Blackboard**

**Data Analysis **

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. Chapter 3

Making Graphs in Excel and R

**Assignment 1** (download assignment documents and datasets from Assignment folder in Blackboard)

**Lecture Series 3: Describing Data and Looking at Data—Relationship**

**Required Readings**

M, M, D & S Chapter 2: *Examining Relationships*

Berman, Evan M. 2006. Essential Statistics for Public Managers and Policy Analysts, 2nd edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 4: Measures of Association* &* Chapter 6 Regression I (page 116-123)*

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 7: Correlation and Regression*

Huff, D. and I. Geis (1993). *How to lie with statistics*, WW Norton & Company. Chapter 7

For preparing to write your term paper and presentation

Spurrier, John D. 2000. The Practice of Statistics: Putting the Piece Together. New York: Duxbury. Chapter 12, 13, and 14

Hunter, David H. 2009. A Practical Guide to Critical Thinking: Deciding What to Do and What to Believe. New York: Wiley.

**The data analysis assignment and Journal articles of this section’s reading are downloadable from this course Blackboard. **

**Data Analysis**

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. *Chapter 8 & 9 *

**Assignment 2 **(download assignment documents and datasets from **Assignment folder **in Blackboard)

**Lecture Series 4: Producing Data: Design of Experiments, Sampling Design, Toward Statistical Inference, Ethics **

M, M, D & S Chapter 3: Producing Data

More, David S. 2003. Statistics: Concepts and Controversies. New York: W.H.Freeman. *Chapter 2 Samples, Good and Bad; Chapter 3 What Do Samples Tell Us?; Chapter 4 Sample Surveys in the Real World; Chapter 5 Experiment, Good and Bad; Chapter 6 Experiments in the Real World *

Asher, Herbert. 2001. Polling and The Public Opinion: What Every Citizen Should Know, fifth edition. Washington D.C.: CQ Press.* Chapter 2 Problem of Nonattitudes; Chapter 3 Wording and Context of Questions; Chapter 4 Sampling Techniques; Chapter 5 Interviewing and Data Collection Procedures *

Nardi, Peter M. 2003. Doing Survey Research: A Guide to Quantitative Methods. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.* Chapter 4: Developing a Questionnaire*

Dorofeev, Sergey, and Peter Grant. 2006. Statistics for Real-Life Sample Survey: Non-Simple-Random Samples and Weighted Data. New York: Campbridge. *Chapter 1 Sampling methods*

*The data analysis assignment and Journal articles of this section’s reading are downloadable from this course Blackboard*

**Data Analysis **

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. *Chapter 4 *

**Assignment 3 **(download assignment documents and datasets from **Assignment folder** in Blackboard)

**Lecture Series 5: Probability and Distributions**

M, M, D & S* Chapter 4: Probability and Sampling Distributions & Chapter 5: Probability Theory *

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 8. Thinking Empirically, Thinking Probabilistically*

Thurman, Paul W. 2007. MBA Fundamentals: Statistics. New York: Kaplan. *Chapter 2. Measuring and Managing Uncertainty *

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 4. The “How Else?” Question: Making Controlled Comparisons *

Lowry, Richard. 1989. The Architecture of Chance: An Introduction to the Logic and Arithmetic of Probability. New York: Oxford University Press.

Thurmond, Paul W. 2007. MBA Fundamentals, Statistics. New York: Kaplan. Chapter 2 Measuring and Managing Uncertainty

**The data analysis assignment and Journal articles of this section's reading are downloadable from this course Blackboard**

**Data Analysis**

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. Chapter 13

**Assignment 4** (download assignment documents and datasets from **Assignment folder** in Blackboard)

**Lecture Series 6: Statistical Inference**

M, M, D & S Chapter 6, 7, 8, and 9

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 2 Explanation and Hypotheses*; *Chapter 5 Sampling and Inference*; *Chapter 6 Tests of Significance and Measures of Association*

**The data analysis assignment and Journal articles of this section’s reading are downloadable from this course Blackboard. **

Data Analysis

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. Chapter 5 & 6

Power Test

Download G*Power

**Assignment 5 **(download assignment documents and datasets from **Assignment folder** in Blackboard)

**Lecture Series 7: Topics in One-Way/Two-Way Analysis of Variance and Nonparametric Tests**

M, M, D & S Chapter 14, 15 and 16

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 6 Tests of Significance and Measures of Association (135-142)*

**Lecture Series 8: Topics in Inference for Regression and Multiple Regression **

M, M, D & S Chapter 10, 11

*Dummy Variable*

Hardy, Melissa A. 1993. Regression with Dummy Variables. Newbury Park: Sage.

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2003. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. Page 155-158: *Dummy Variable*

Fox, John. 2002. An R and S-Plus Companion to Applied Regression. Thousand Oaks: Sage. *Chapter 4* (126 to 133)

*Interaction *

Brambor, T., W. R. Clark, et al. (2006). "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses." Political Analysis 14(1): 63-82.

Fox, John. 2002. An R and S-Plus Companion to Applied Regression. Thousand Oaks: Sage. *Chapter 4* (133 to 136)

*Diagnosing Problems *

Fox, John. 2002. An R and S-Plus Companion to Applied Regression. Thousand Oaks: Sage. Chapter 6 (192 to 225)

**The data analysis assignment and Journal articles of this section’s reading are downloadable from this course Blackboard. **

**Data Analysis**

Heiberger, R. M. a. E. N. (2009). R Through Excel: A Spreadsheet Interface for Statistics, Data Analysis, and Graphics. New York, Springer. Chapter 10 & 12

**Assignment 6 **(download assignment documents and datasets from **Assignment folder** in Blackboard)

**Lecture Series 9: Logistic Regression**

M, M, D & S Chapter 17

Pollock, Philip H. III. 2009. The Essentials of Political Analysis. Washington D.C.: CQ Press. *Chapter 9 Logistic Regression*

Hosmer, D. W., and Stanley Lemeshow (2000). Applied Logistic Regression. New York, Wiley. Introduction

Fox, John. 2002. An R and S-Plus Companion to Applied Regression. Thousand Oaks: Sage. *Chapter 5* (155 to 172)

*Diagnostic for Generalized Linear Models *

Fox, John. 2002. An R and S-Plus Companion to Applied Regression. Thousand Oaks: Sage. Chapter 6 (225 to 233)

* Assignment 7 (download assignment documents and datasets from Assignment folder in Blackboard)*