STUDY ANALYZES CONSERVATIVE VS. LIBERAL
COURT DECISIONS BY BUSH JUDGES
Bush’s Re-election Could Produce More Conservative Courts,
Says UH Political Scientist Robert Carp
HOUSTON, Aug. 26, 2004 – If President George W. Bush wins
re-election in November, the federal judiciary could take on an
even sharper conservative slant, according to a new study by a University
of Houston political scientist.
The research appears in the current issue of Judicature, a publication
from the American Judicature Society.
Analysis for “The Decision Making Behavior of George W. Bush’s
Judicial Appointees” was conducted by political science professors
Robert A. Carp, UH; Kenneth L. Manning, University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth;
and Ronald Stidham, Appalachian State University.
They consulted West Publishing Company’s Federal Supplement
to code district court decisions using a liberal-conservative dimension
involving civil liberties and rights, criminal justice and labor
and economic regulation decisions. More than 70,000 cases from more
than 1700 judges during a 75-year span were analyzed. Carp, the
study’s lead investigator, has been conducting the research
for more than three decades.
George W. Bush’s judicial appointees delivered liberal decisions
only 27.9 percent of the time in cases involving civil liberties
and rights, compared to Richard Nixon’s (37.9), Gerald Ford’s
(40.3), Ronald Reagan’s (32.3) and George H. Bush’s
(32.2). Democratic Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter and
Bill Clinton judges scored 58.1, 51.3 and 42.1 percent correspondingly
in the same category.
“Bush is the most conservative president in recent history
when it comes to civil rights and liberties,” said Carp. “When
considering other categories like criminal justice and labor and
economic regulation, the President and his GOP predecessors rank
about the same. Likewise, there is little difference between Bush
and Clinton judges as it relates to economic, criminal and labor
law.”
Overall, the President’s appointees handed down 36.1 percent
liberal rulings, ideologically about the same as previous Republican
presidents. In comparison, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and the elder Bush
scored at 38.1, 43.5, 35.8 and 37.0 respectively. Presidents Johnson,
Carter and Clinton were at 51.9, 51.6 and 44.7
.
The more judges a president can select, the greater the influence
the White House has on the judicial branch, according to the article’s
authors. Given that several Supreme Court justices are on brink
of retirement, whoever wins November’s election will have
a tremendous influence on high court rulings in the next several
years.
On the lower federal bench, 51 percent of judges were appointed
by Republicans while Democrats selected 49 percent when Bush entered
the Oval Office. Following the end of his first term, Republican
appointees will control a majority of the 13 circuit courts.
“What you see is what you get. Based on our formula, we can
expect to see more conservative court decisions from trial judges
if Bush is re-elected in November,” Carp said. “Should
Bush not win re-election, both trial and appellate courts will likely
turn in another direction.”
Bush has appointed a greater percentage of women and minorities
to the bench in comparison to his father and Reagan but less than
Clinton.
“Background factors such as party affiliation, race and gender
do not affect a majority of cases, because most decisions are made
based on the strongest evidence and best precedents,” Carp
said. “However, in new areas of law or in cases where the
evidence from both sides is equally compelling, the judge’s
race, gender and party affiliation play a more significant role.”
The American Judicature Society is a nonpartisan organization
with a national membership of judges, lawyers, and non-legally trained
citizens interested in the administration of justice. Through research,
educational programs, and publications, AJS's primary areas of focus
are judicial independence; judicial conduct and ethics; judicial
selection; the jury; court administration and public understanding
of the Justice System.
For a copy of the article, contact Judicature Editor David Richert
at drichert@ajs.org.
About the University of Houston
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and teaching institution, is home to more than 40 research centers
and institutes and sponsors more than 300 partnerships with corporate,
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in the country, stands at the forefront of education, research and
service with more than 35,000 students
For more information about UH visit the universitys Newsroom at www.uh.edu/admin/media/newsroom.
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