NEWS RELEASE

Office of External Communications

Houston, TX 77204-5017 Fax; 713/743-8199

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 4, 2004

Contact: Angie Joe
713/743-8153 (office)
713/617-7138 (pager)
ajoe@uh.edu

HOUSTON’S RECOVERY GAINS MOMENTUM, BUT NOT ALL GOOD NEWS
FOR AREA REAL ESTATE, SAYS UH’S BARTON SMITH DURING SYMPOSIUM

Houston’s economy has begun to show signs of growth with seasonally adjusted job gains since the end of last summer approaching 25,000. “This is coming in tandem with the growing strength of the national recovery that is just now starting to create new jobs,” says Barton Smith, University of Houston director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting (IRF).

With energy prices high and the region’s upstream energy economy beginning to come out of the doldrums, it now seems possible that Houston will not follow the pattern of the early ‘90s recession when the local recovery trailed the national recovery for almost three years? “As we indicated last fall, whether Houston under or out performs the national economy this year depends upon the direction Houston’s upstream energy sector takes and the fact that energy prices held up over the winter enhances the prospects for growth from that sector over the rest of this year.”

Smith will host “Playing the Waiting Game: The Different Perspectives of Residential and Commercial Property Interests” May 6 at the Hyatt Regency Hotel Downtown, 1200 Louisiana. During that symposium, the economics professor will carefully document the progress the region has made on the road to recovery, the remaining risks to this young economic expansion, and the implications it has to area real estate markets. In addition to providing updates of the IRF’s 5-year and 25-year forecasts, he will present forecasts for new demand and new supply of each of the region’s primary real estate markets and the subsequent vacancy rates those forecasts imply. “With the exception of the single family residential market, all real estate markets are experiencing some degree of difficulty and higher than normal vacancy rates,” Smith declares, but he points out that each market’s problems are unique as well as the time it will take for each to fully recover.

Smith has conducted numerous studies in urban, housing, transportation, and environmental economics. During the past 15 years, he has gained national and local recognition for his analyses of the Houston economy and real estate markets. Smith wrote “Handbook on the Houston Economy” and continues to publish two symposium reports a year on Houston’s economy and real estate markets.

Prior to his presentation, Smith will be available for media interviews from 10:30 a.m. to 11:15 a.m.

ABOUT THE EVENT:

WHAT: “Playing the Waiting Game: The Different Perspectives of Residential and Commercial Property Interests”
WHO: Barton Smith, UH professor of economics and director of the UH Institute for Regional Forecasting
WHEN: Thursday, May 6, 2004
Media availability: 10:30 a.m. to 11:15 a.m.
Luncheon: 11:45 a.m. to 12:20 p.m.
Presentation: 12:20 p.m. to 1:30 p.m.
WHERE: Imperial Ballroom, Hyatt Regency Hotel Downtown, 1200 Louisiana

For more information about UH visit the university’s ‘Newsroom’ at www.uh.edu/admin/media/newsroom.